How do you know that those 10 million are primarily turning up for Trump, and not turning up because they hate Trump with a burning passion?

We all live in our little bubbles, both online and in the real. If you visit thedonald, they're expecting a huge blowout for Trump. If you visit r/politics, they're expecting a huge blowout for Biden. Who is right? They can't both be right. Your county as you acknowledge is also a bubble. This sub is a bubble (although one forced on us).

Let me give you a few counter-observations:

1. You say the media polls were hugely wrong, but that's not entirely the case. 538 gave Trump a 30% chance to win on election day. That's better odds than flipping heads a coin twice. So while the polls may have been off, they weren't actually hugely off and well within the margin of error. And the polls this time are a far wider for Biden than they were last time.

2. You said that Trump might get 15% of the black vote... but last time was Hillary, and this time it's Obama's VP and Kamala Harris who is actually black herself.

3. Visiting the relatives in middle-ish washington (near the cascades) should be solidly red. But I'm seeing a far more Biden signs than there were Hillary signs in 2016. Anecdote for sure, a bubble... but still.

Mate, I hope you are right, but I fear you are engaging in wishful thinking. Mostly, I think you are underestimating how much people HATE Trump and are turning up to vote purely for that reason when they ordinarily wouldn't.

How do you know that those 10 million are primarily turning up for Trump, and not turning up because they hate Trump with a burning passion?

We all live in our little bubbles, both online and in the real. If you visit thedonald, they're expecting a huge blowout for Trump. If you visit r/politics, they're expecting a huge blowout for Biden. Who is right? They can't both be right. Your county as you acknowledge is also a bubble.

Let me give you a few counter-observations:

1. You say the media polls were hugely wrong, but that's not entirely the case. 538 gave Trump a 30% chance to win on election day. That's better odds than flipping heads a coin twice. So while the polls may have been off, they weren't actually hugely off and well within the margin of error. And the polls this time are a far wider for Biden than they were last time.

2. You said that Trump might get 15% of the black vote... but last time was Hillary, and this time it's Obama's VP and Kamala Harris who is actually black herself.

3. Visiting the relatives in middle-ish washington (near the cascades) should be solidly red. But I'm seeing a far more Biden signs than there were Hillary signs in 2016. Anecdote for sure, a bubble... but still.

Mate, I hope you are right, but I fear you are engaging in wishful thinking. Mostly, I think you are underestimating how much people HATE Trump and are turning up to vote purely for that reason when they ordinarily wouldn't.

How do you know that those 10 million are primarily turning up for Trump, and not turning up because they hate Trump with a burning passion?

We all live in our little bubbles, both online and in the real. If you visit thedonald, they're expecting a huge blowout for Trump. If you visit r/politics, they're expecting a huge blowout for Biden. Who is right? They can't both be right. Your county as you acknowledge is also a bubble.

Let me give you a few counter-observations:

1. You say the media polls were hugely wrong, but that's not entirely the case. 538 gave Trump a 30% chance to win on election day. That's better odds than flipping heads a coin twice. So while the polls may have been off, they weren't actually hugely off and well within the margin of error. And the polls this time are a far wider for Biden than they were last time.

2. You said that Trump might get 15% of the black vote... but last time was Hillary, and this time it's Obama's VP and Kamala Harris who is actually black herself.

3. Visiting the relatives in middle-ish washington (near the cascades) should be solidly red. But I'm seeing a far more Biden signs than there were Hillary signs in 2016. Anecdote for sure, a bubble... but still.

Mate, I hope you are right, but I fear you are engaging in wishful thinking.

How do you know that those 10 million are primarily turning up for Trump, and not turning up because they hate Trump with a burning passion?

We all live in our little bubbles, both online and in the real. If you visit thedonald, they're expecting a huge blowout for Trump. If you visit r/politics, they're expecting a huge blowout for Biden. Who is right? They can't both be right. Your county as you acknowledge is also a bubble.

Let me give you a few counter-observations:

1. You say the media polls were hugely wrong, but that's not entirely the case. 538 gave Trump a 30% chance to win on election day. That's better odds than flipping heads a coin twice. So while the polls may have been off, they weren't actually hugely off and the polls this time are a far wider margin for Biden than they were last time.

2. You said that Trump might get 15% of the black vote... but last time was Hillary, and this time it's Obama's VP and Kamala Harris who is actually black herself.

3. Visiting the relatives in middle-ish washington (near the cascades) should be solidly red. But I'm seeing a far more Biden signs than there were Hillary signs in 2016. Anecdote for sure, a bubble... but still.

Mate, I hope you are right, but I fear you are engaging in wishful thinking.