Thank you for a thoughtful response. It was a good read and I especially appreciate your historical perspective regarding how the leftist media has always demonized republican candidates. I'd spend some time replying to each bit but for the most part we are in agreement so I'd just be reiterating the points you've made, though perhaps less eloquently.

What we're disagreeing on is the best tactic for winning the general election. From what you've said it's clear that you believe getting out the republican base is the most important thing a republican candidate can do. I believe it's more important to ensure that the democratic base does not turn out heavily. We both agree that winning independents and disillusioned Biden voters is important.

Let me argue for my preferred tactic step by step:

1. The democrat base is currently a fair bit larger than the republican base: https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/registered-voters-by-party

2. There are actually quite a large number of independent or unregistered voters, so they are very important (see above ref)

3. Trump energizes both republican and democratic bases equally. Since (1) this is at best a wash for Trump but more likely a slight edge for Biden (only slight because much of the democratic base's superior size is located in heavily blue states which are not in electoral contention)

4. Trump did poorly amongst independents in 2020 and I do not think the multiple indictments (however politically motivated they are) will net him more of their support in 2024. Counterbalancing that is that independents have had a chance to experience just how bad Biden is and that may play in Trump's favor. I expect he will perform roughly the same with this group in 2024.

So, in my view this works out as a wash or slight edge to Biden on the bases and an edge to Biden on the independents if Trump is the nominee. Not exactly a winning formula.

Now, given what you've written I expect you would dispute item (3) first and foremost. I feel like you're saying that the left is going to show up in droves in 2024 to vote against any republican candidate and that's why the republican base must show up 'bigly' heh. My opinion is that they will not show up in anywhere near 2020 numbers if the candidate is anyone but Trump. There's something innate to Trump's particular brand of charisma that drives democratic animus like no other candidate that I've ever seen. They really, genuinely hate the guy in a way that they won't hate, eg, DeSantis, Ramaswamy, Lake, or whoever despite the media's best attempts.

Again, I want to reiterate that Trump CAN win. Biden is such a weak candidate. And the left's machinations with the indictments, meant to make Trump the nominee, may drive support his way if enough people realize what they're doing. Hell, maybe the Biden corruption story will finally break in a big way. Who knows.

But his path to victory is narrow. I just don't see why we should risk giving him another shot when Biden is so weak that there is a good chance that any other republican candidate not only wins, but wins easily.

Thank you for a thoughtful response. It was a good read and I especially appreciate your historical perspective regarding how the leftist media has always demonized republican candidates. I'd spend some time replying to each bit but for the most part we are in agreement so I'd just be reiterating the points you've made, though perhaps less eloquently.

What we're disagreeing on is the best tactic for winning the general election. From what you've said it's clear that you believe getting out the republican base is the most important thing a republican candidate can do. I believe it's more important to ensure that the democratic base does not turn out heavily. We both agree that winning independents and disillusioned Biden voters is important.

Let me argue for my preferred tactic step by step:

1. The democrat base is currently a fair bit larger than the republican base: https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/registered-voters-by-party

2. There are actually quite a large number of independent or unregistered voters, so they are very important (see above ref)

3. Trump energizes both republican and democratic bases equally. Since (1) this is at best a wash for Trump but more likely a slight edge for Biden (only slight because much of the democratic base's superior size is located in heavily blue states which are not in electoral contention)

4. Trump did poorly amongst independents in 2020 and I do not think the multiple indictments (however politically motivated they are) will net him more of their support in 2024. Counterbalancing that is that independents have had a chance to experience just how bad Biden is and that may play in Trump's favor. I expect he will perform roughly the same with this group in 2024.

So, in my view this works out as a wash or slight edge to Biden on the bases and an edge to Biden on the independents if Trump is the nominee. Not exactly a winning formula.

Now, give what you've written I expect you would dispute item (3) first and foremost. I feel like you're saying that the left is going to show up in droves in 2024 to vote against any republican candidate and that's why the republican base must show up 'bigly' heh. My opinion is that they will not show up in anywhere near 2020 numbers if the candidate is anyone but Trump. There's something innate to Trump's particular brand of charisma that drives democratic animus like no other candidate that I've ever seen. They really, genuinely hate the guy in a way that they won't hate, eg, DeSantis, Ramaswamy, Lake, or whoever despite the media's best attempts.

Again, I want to reiterate that Trump CAN win. Biden is such a weak candidate. And the left's machinations with the indictments, meant to make Trump the nominee, may drive support his way if enough people realize what they're doing. Hell, maybe the Biden corruption story will finally break in a big way. Who knows.

But his path to victory is narrow. I just don't see why we should risk giving him another shot when Biden is so weak that there is a good chance that any other republican candidate not only wins, but wins easily.