It really isn't. As others have said, rule of thumb is 2x to 2.5x the budget to get to breaking even (including marketing, etc.) But the studio only banks between 50% (domestically) and 25% (in China) of the box office. So a $500m box office would mean a $250m loss for Disney on a $250m film like TLM.

This graphic paints an even bleaker picture, but even going off of the accepted rules of thumb, this is a disaster for Disney.

Edit: to bolster my point, even pReddits boxoffice sub is saying that the film will need between 600-700m to start turning a profit, due to the theater cut.

It really isn't. As others have said, rule of thumb is 2x to 2.5x the budget to get to breaking even (including marketing, etc.) But the studio only banks between 50% (domestically) and 25% (in China) of the box office. So a $500m box office would mean a $250m loss for Disney on a $250m film like TLM.

This graphic paints an even bleaker picture, but even going off of the accepted rules of thumb, this is a disaster for Disney.