Meh, I don't think it was ever the case that Russia was going to rely on an extra cold winter as their trump card. The worst that was going to happen was higher than normal energy prices and an economic crunch for the winter.

The bigger news is that the warm weather has delayed permafrost in Ukraine, opening up the possibility of a longer than normal mud season. If temps stay high the ground won't freeze and the soil will become near impossible for heavy machinery to cross without the luxury of a road. This favors the Russians more than the Ukrainians for the time being as the Ukrainians won't be as mobile and more prone to artillery and missile bombardment.

Both sides are completing gear ups in preparation for (around) May. If the winter temps hold off for longer, the Russian army will be better supplied by go time as their supply lines are still comically overextended but will benefit greatly from not having Ukrainian artillery shells raining down on them.

Not all is sunshine and potatoes for the Russians however. The US ( +NATO) have been ramping up arms supplies to the Ukrainian military. And it's no longer the stuff that any monkey could use, but it's starting to get to "The Good Stuff™". Which traditionally meant Americans in the theater. This time however the Americans shipped some Ukrainians out of the shit, trained them in American weapons systems, and will be shipping them back to Ukraine around May.

They'll arrive around the same time half a million Russian recruits do. So expect a good deal of blood to get spilled.

Meh, I don't think it was ever the case that Russia was going to rely on an extra cold winter as their trump card. The worst that was doing to happen was higher than normal energy prices and an economic crunch for the winter.

The bigger news is that the warm weather has delayed permafrost in Ukraine, opening up the possibility of a longer than normal mud season. If temps stay high the ground won't freeze and the soil will become near impossible for heavy machinery to cross without the luxury of a road. This favors the Russians more than the Ukrainians for the time being as the Ukrainians won't be as mobile and more prone to artillery and missile bombardment.

Both sides are completing gear ups in preparation for (around) May. If the winter temps hold off for longer, the Russian army will be better supplied by go time as their supply lines are still comically overextended but will benefit greatly from not having Ukrainian artillery shells raining down on them.

Not all is sunshine and potatoes for the Russians however. The US ( +NATO) have been ramping up arms supplies to the Ukrainian military. And it's no longer the stuff that any monkey could use, but it's starting to get to "The Good Stuff™". Which traditionally meant Americans in the theater. This time however the Americans shipped some Ukrainians out of the shit, trained them in American weapons systems, and will be shipping them back to Ukraine around May.

They'll arrive around the same time half a million Russian recruits do. So expect a good deal of blood to get spilled.