Ah, Azerbaijan. You non-democracy democracy.
Long story short on Azerbaijan. Majority Muslim country. "Secular". Seeks closer ties with NATO and EU. Same family has been running it since '91. Regularly jails dissent. Biggest aim in life is to reclaim the Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding area from Armenia.
The US involvement stems back from the break up of the USSR, to more recently Bush 2, where Azerbaijan was apart of the coalition cobbled together after 9/11 that "kept the peace" in Iraq and Afghanistan. The US has since kept the country at a distance, until recently.
Biden, funny enough, campaigned on keeping Azerbaijan at a distance. However, that was quickly reversed in practice and has continued till today. Biden's admin gives us no real insight into "why" as the last time it was spoken about was in 2020.
My intial speculation is that the US is trying to woo old USSR countries into the US orbit in a further attempt to isolate Russia (and use the land for bases). However Azerbaijan enjoys close relations with both Turkey (both share a hatred for all things Armenian) and Russia (The last peace talks brokered by Russia awarded Azerbaijan a butt-ton of territory).
So I think wooing Azerbaijan away from Russia is a long shot by any reasonable playbook, so the aim may be more to curry favor with Turkey? The US has used the Turks before thanks to it's all important control of the Turkish straits from the Black Sea. Shutting down access (or more realistically, limiting access) into the Mediterranean for Russia would be a huge victory for DC and it's attempt to isolate Russia from the wider world as well as a major disaster for Russia that could spark serious consequences.
It's still a long shot, US - Turkey relations aren't at it's brightest. With recent US fiddling in Syria that ignited a strong Kurdish identity revival on Turkey's southern border and the US's cooling off of Erdogan has strained the relationship between the two. However, in a choice between the West or Russia, my money is on Turkey to cozy up to the West.
So yeah, that's my two cents. Biden's using Azerbaijan to cozy up to Turkey.
And also making a buck at the same time. All the aid is going to do is cause increased instability between both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Requiring weapons purchases (fingers crossed not from Russia!) and further aid packages.
Or... Another likely scenario?
Biden fell asleep and just didn't put in the work.
Ah, Azerbaijan. You non-democracy democracy.
Long story short on Azerbaijan. Majority Muslim country. "Secular". Seeks closer ties with NATO and EU. Same family has been running it since '91. Regularly jails dissent. Biggest aim in life is to reclaim the Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding area from Armenia.
The US involvement stems back from the break up of the USSR, to more recently Bush 2, where Azerbaijan was apart of the coalition cobbled together after 9/11 that "kept the peace" in Iraq and Afghanistan. The US has since kept the country at a distance, until recently.
Biden, funny enough, campaigned on keeping Azerbaijan at a distance. However, that was quickly reversed in practice and has continued till today. Biden's admin gives us no real insight into "why" as the last time it was spoken about was in 2020.
My intial speculation is that the US is trying to woo old USSR countries into the US orbit in a further attempt to isolate Russia (and use the land for bases). However Azerbaijan enjoys close relations with both Turkey (both share a hatred for all things Armenian) and Russia (The last peace talks brokered by Russia awarded Azerbaijan a butt-ton of territory).
So I think wooing Azerbaijan away from Russia is a long shot by any reasonable playbook, so the aim may be more to curry favor with Turkey? The US has used the Turks before thanks to it's all important control of the Turkish straits from the Black Sea. Shutting down access (or more realistically, limiting access) into the Mediterranean for Russia would be a huge victory for DC and it's attempt to isolate Russia from the wider world as well as a major disaster for Russia that could spark serious consequences.
It's still a long shot, US - Turkey relations aren't at it's brightest. With recent US fiddling in Syria that ignited a strong Kurdish identity revival on Turkey's southern border and the US's cooling off of Erdogan has strained the relationship between the two. However, in a choice between the West or Russia, my money is on Turkey to cosy up to the West.
So yeah, that's my two cents. Biden's using Azerbaijan to cozy up to Turkey.
And also making a buck at the same time. All the aid is going to do is cause increased instability between both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Requiring weapons purchases (fingers crossed not from Russia!) and further aid packages.
Or... Another likely scenario?
Biden fell asleep and just didn't put in the work.
Ah, Azerbaijan. You non-democracy democracy.
Long story short on Azerbaijan. Majority Muslim country. "Secular". Seeks closer ties with NATO and EU. Same family has been running it since '91. Regularly jails dissent. Biggest aim in life is to reclaim the Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding area from Armenia.
The US involvement stems back from the break up of the USSR, to more recently Bush 2, were Azerbaijan was apart of the coalition cobbled together after 9/11 that "kept the peace" in Iraq and Afghanistan. The US has since kept the country at a distance, until recently.
Biden, funny enough, campaigned on keeping Azerbaijan at a distance. However, that was quickly reversed in practice and has continued till today. Biden's admin gives us no real insight into "why" as the last time it was spoken about was in 2020.
My intial speculation is that the US is trying to woo old USSR countries into the US orbit in a further attempt to isolate Russia (and use the land for bases). However Azerbaijan enjoys close relations with both Turkey (both share a hatred for all things Armenian) and Russia (The last peace talks brokered by Russia awarded Azerbaijan a butt-ton of territory).
So I think wooing Azerbaijan away from Russia is a long shot by any reasonable playbook, so the aim may be more to curry favor with Turkey? The US has used the Turks before thanks to it's all important control of the Turkish straits from the Black Sea. Shutting down access (or more realistically, limiting access) into the Mediterranean for Russia would be a huge victory for DC and it's attempt to isolate Russia from the wider world as well as a major disaster for Russia that could spark serious consequences.
It's still a long shot, US - Turkey relations aren't at it's brightest. With recent US fiddling in Syria that ignited a strong Kurdish identity revival on Turkey's southern border and the US's cooling off of Erdogan has strained the relationship between the two. However, in a choice between the West or Russia, my money is on Turkey to cosy up to the West.
So yeah, that's my two cents. Biden's using Azerbaijan to cozy up to Turkey.
And also making a buck at the same time. All the aid is going to do is cause increased instability between both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Requiring weapons purchases (fingers crossed not from Russia!) and further aid packages.
Or... Another likely scenario?
Biden fell asleep and just didn't put in the work.
Ah, Azerbaijan. You non-democracy democracy.
Long story short on Azerbaijan. Majority Muslim country. "Secular". Seeks closer ties with NATO and EU. Same family has been running it since '91. Regularly jails dissent. Biggest aim in life is to reclaim the Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding area from Armenia.
The US involvement stems back from the break up of the USSR, to more recently Bush 2, were Azerbaijan was apart of the coalition cobbled together after 9/11 that "kept the peace" in Iraq and Afghanistan. The US has since kept the country at a distance, until recently.
Biden, funny enough, campaigned on keeping Azerbaijan at a distance. However, that was quickly reversed in practice and has continued till today. Biden's admin gives us no real insight into "why" as the last time it was spoken about was in 2020.
My intial speculation is that the US is trying to woo old USSR countries into the US orbit in a further attempt to isolate the country (and use the land for bases). However Azerbaijan enjoys close relations with both Turkey (both share a hatred for all things Armenian) and Russia (The last peace talks brokered by Russia awarded Azerbaijan a butt-ton of territory).
So I think wooing Azerbaijan away from Russia is a long shot by any reasonable playbook, so the aim may be more to curry favor with Turkey? We've used the Turks before thanks to it's all important control of the Turkish straits. Shutting down access (or more realistically, limiting access) into the Mediterranean for Russia would be a huge victory for DC and it's attempt to isolate Russia from the wider world.
It's still a long shot, US - Turkey relations aren't at it's brightest. With recent US fiddling in Syria that ignited a strong Kurdish identity revival on Turkey's southern border and the US's cooling off of Erdogan had strained the relationship between the two. However, in a choice between the West or Russia, my money is on Turkey to cosy up to the West.
So yeah, that's my two cents. Biden's using Azerbaijan to cozy up to Turkey.
And also making a buck at the same time. All the aid is going to do is cause increased instability between both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Requiring weapons purchases (fingers crossed not from Russia!) and further aid packages.
Or... Another likely scenario?
Biden fell asleep and just didn't put in the work.