I wouldn't get to worried, or hopeful, depending on your point of view.

Belarus is sigh so very poor. It's a Landlocked nation with no natural borders kind of poor. It's best defense is how absolutely useless the land is for anyone right now, and it owes it's existence to the fact that neither Moscow nor Warsaw nor Kiev can muster enough strength to take and hold it.

If Belarus was to get involved (doubtful) it's contributions would be meager to the effort. It's best attribute going for the country is it's location and the appearance of being neutral. Not it's fighting force. Belarus going hot would open it to attacks from the south, which it wouldn't be able to withstand much against as Belarusian infrastructure is weak, old, and (relatively) expensive to repair. The Belarusian army's equipment is also outdated and old and could only contribute little as Belarus doesn't have a large army, sophisticated weapons program, or access to otherwise unaccessible material and resources.

If Belarus was to maintain it's appearance of neutrality (likely) they could best help Moscow by providing cover for troops, staging areas, and extending supply lines. Especially now as Ukraine is starting to open up missile and drone attacks in Russia. Something of which Lukashenko would rather avoid. Overall Belarus is better sitting "in the rear with the gear" for now, and I don't think that's going to change soon.

Overall, the chances of Belarus going hot is pretty low, for now. They are enjoying the peace and quiet of not getting attacked, while taking in the benefit of hosting a large (friendly -ish) army and all it's associated benefits. We will see in the future if Belarus gets more hawkish, especially if any Ukrainian missiles accidently hit a Belarusian tree.

I wouldn't get to worried, or hopeful, depending on your point of view.

Belarus is sigh so very poor. It's a Landlocked nation with no natural borders kind of poor. It's best defense is how absolutely useless the land is for anyone right now, and it owes it's existence to the fact that neither Moscow nor Warsaw nor Kiev can muster enough strength to take and hold it.

If Belarus was to get involved (doubtful) it's contributions would be meager to the effort. It's best attribute going for the country is it's location and the appearance of being neutral. Not it's fighting force. Belarus going hot would open it to attacks from the south, which it wouldn't be able to withstand much against as Belarusian infrastructure is weak, old, and (relatively) expensive to repair. The Belarusian army's equipment is also outdated and old, and could only contribute a little, as Belarus doesn't have a large army, sophisticated weapons program, or access to otherwise unaccessible material and resources.

If Belarus was to maintain it's appearance of neutrality (likely) they could best help Moscow by providing cover for troops, staging areas, and extending supply lines. Especially now as Ukraine is starting to open up missile and drone attacks in Russia. Something of which Lukashenko would rather avoid. Overall Belarus is better sitting "in the rear with the gear" for now, and I don't think that's going to change soon.

Overall, the chances of Belarus going hot is pretty low, for now. They are enjoying the peace and quiet of not getting attacked, while taking in the benefit of hosting a large (friendly -ish) army and all it's associated benefits. We will see in the future if Belarus gets more hawkish, especially if any Ukrainian missiles accidently hit a Belarusian tree.

I wouldn't get to worried, or hopeful, depending on your point of view.

Belarus is sigh so very poor. It's a Landlocked nation with no natural borders poor. It's best defense is how absolutely useless the land is for anyone right now, and it owes it's existence to the fact that neither Moscow nor Warsaw nor Kiev can muster enough strength to take and hold it.

If Belarus was to get involved (doubtful) it's contributions would be meager. Instead, it's best attribute going for it is location and the appearance of being neutral. Belarus going hot would open it to attacks from the south, which it wouldn't be able to withstand much of. The Belarusian army's equipment is outdated and old, and would only contribute meagerly to the overall effort.

If Belarus was to maintain it's appearance of neutrality (likely) they could best help Moscow by providing cover for troops, staging areas, and extending supply lines. Especially now as Ukraine is starting to open up missile and drone attacks in Russia. Overall Belarus is better"in the rear with the gear" for now, and I don't think that's going to change soon.

Overall, the chances of Belarus going hot is pretty low for now. They are enjoying the peace and quiet of not getting attacked, while taking in the benefit of hosting a large (friendly -ish) army and all is associated benefits. We will see in the future if Belarus gets more hawkish, especially if any Ukrainian missiles accidently hit a Belarusian tree.