For those who say "it's impossible for Trump to lose Texas".... In 2016, he won by 9. By 2020, that dropped to 5.6. Trump hasn't gained popularity since 2020.
It's not a pure referendum on Trump.
Trump will win if the economy is bad, and he'll lose if it is good.
You are trying to look at one element of the cross tabs to try to discredit this. Cross-tabs often have really bizarre findings.
As someone who lives in a right leaning Texas suburb in the DFW area, I have seen with my own eyes that even right leaning suburban voters in Texas just don't like Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.
If Trump is the nominee, these two men will be on the ballot at the same time!
Texas suburban voters will vote for the Greg Abbott and Dan Patrick types but just not Trump and Cruz.
There is a reason why Trump was the first GOP Presidential nominee to lose Tarrant County in 2020 and Cruz was the first GOP senator to lose Tarrant County in 2018.
Trump and Cruz on the ballot at the same time in Texas is a nightmare waiting to happen.
That was just one of many bizarre statistical spreads showing that the methodology they used was designed to get a result instead of properly random.
Texas is unique in that you can completely control the results by where and how you administer the poll. There is enough far left conclaves in TX to easily manipulate data.
That's why the first thing I looked at was the methodology and the individual numbers, and it confirmed my suspicions.
When you know how to review data you learn how to spot red flags. This one has a ton.
Yeah, Trump lost support among white men between 2016 and 2020. During a time when democrats were openly hostile to white men, white men abandoned Trump and voted for the people who loudly and proudly hate them.
I don't know why you guys try to say only fraud is the reason he lost 2020.
I always acknowledge mail in ballot laws being changed and the elections being flooded with mail in ballots fucked him but nothing has changed on that front for 2024.
The fact remains there are other factors that also fucked him in 2020.
Trump absolutely lost support with a subset of White men from 2016 to 2020: White men with a bachelor's degree.
Two of my friends are this demographic.
We all voted for Trump in 2016 and they didn't vote for anyone for President in 2020 because they didn't like him being weak on the BLM riots and pushing the Platinum Plan. I voted again for Trump in 2020 and tried getting them to vote Trump again in 2020 but no dice.
In 2024, they told me they are not voting at all if the race is Biden vs Trump.
They are not unicorns, a lot of people are sick of choosing between two angry old men.
You are basing a TON of your opinion on this single poll, run by a Liberal Arts college in Texas with questionable methodology.
Texas is currently being flooded with migrants with all the Southern Border states. What this poll and you are suggesting is that nobody in Texas cares about this issue.
You are ignoring how the state has electorally trended from 2016 to 2020 and how the Senate race trended from 2012 to 2018.
The margins have substantially narrowed for Trump and Cruz. The two men have only acquired more baggage since their last election. Trump has J6 and Stop the Steal which hurts him dearly in the suburbs and Cruz has the Cancun Cruz debacle which hurts him in the suburbs.
There are legitimate reasons to be worried about this.
Suburban voters here care about the border somewhat but they absolutely don't like Donald Trump and Ted Cruz as individuals.
People DON'T always vote on policy but sometimes on personal dislike.
Texas is a likely red state for any Republican that is not Trump or Cruz.
Trump and Cruz are the weakest performing Republicans in the last 30+ years.
Having them both on the ballot at the same time in 2024 is just a nightmare waiting to happen.
I have given you my reasons and the election data to support this.
This guy is a jackass.
It's not a pure referendum on Trump.
Trump will win if the economy is bad, and he'll lose if it is good.
Giancarlo Sopo worked for Trump's 2020 campaign as his rapid response director for Hispanic outreach.
He was part of the team that made this catchy ad for the Trump 2020 campaign.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-ZwOfaTMBc
Sopo knows what he is talking about.
I'm looking through the methodology and this is one biased fucking sample group.
4% of black people who contributed to this survey said they "strongly disapprove" of Biden?
4%? Look at the other percentage points on Q6 how is that even possible?
There's all sorts of statistical shittery about this poll, and I don't trust anything from "The Texas Politics Project"
https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/
It is essentially an extension of a liberal college.
Go look at this pollster's results in 2020 and 2022.
They were the most accurate.
https://twitter.com/GiancarloSopo/status/1653764105646358529
You are trying to look at one element of the cross tabs to try to discredit this. Cross-tabs often have really bizarre findings.
As someone who lives in a right leaning Texas suburb in the DFW area, I have seen with my own eyes that even right leaning suburban voters in Texas just don't like Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.
If Trump is the nominee, these two men will be on the ballot at the same time!
Texas suburban voters will vote for the Greg Abbott and Dan Patrick types but just not Trump and Cruz.
There is a reason why Trump was the first GOP Presidential nominee to lose Tarrant County in 2020 and Cruz was the first GOP senator to lose Tarrant County in 2018.
Trump and Cruz on the ballot at the same time in Texas is a nightmare waiting to happen.
That was just one of many bizarre statistical spreads showing that the methodology they used was designed to get a result instead of properly random.
Texas is unique in that you can completely control the results by where and how you administer the poll. There is enough far left conclaves in TX to easily manipulate data.
That's why the first thing I looked at was the methodology and the individual numbers, and it confirmed my suspicions.
When you know how to review data you learn how to spot red flags. This one has a ton.
None of what you said changes the point I am making.
This one poll is nowhere close to the only evidence I am providing to support my argument.
My argument is that Trump 2024 and Cruz for Senate on the ballot at the same time would be the weakest GOP ticket in Texas in the last 40 years.
Look at Trump's margin of victory in 2016 then in 2020.
He won by about 9 points in 2016 and only by 5.5 points in 2020. Trump has only acquired more baggage since 2020.
Look at Cruz's margin in 2018. He barely won by a margin of about 3 points.
Since then the Dems have painted Ted as Cancun Cruz for fleeing Texas during the Winter storm of 2021.
Trump on the topline absolutely will harm Cruz.
We absolutely need to hold Cruz's Senate seat to prevent a Dem tri-fecta.
Trump as the 2024 nominee is playing a dangerous game in Texas.
As someone who lives in a suburban area in Texas, Trump and Cruz together is the most toxic ticket here.
If these two men are on the ballot at the same time and we are lucky enough that they both win Texas in 2024, it will be by the skin of their teeth.
Yeah, Trump lost support among white men between 2016 and 2020. During a time when democrats were openly hostile to white men, white men abandoned Trump and voted for the people who loudly and proudly hate them.
That’s definitely what happened. It wasn’t fraud.
I don't know why you guys try to say only fraud is the reason he lost 2020.
I always acknowledge mail in ballot laws being changed and the elections being flooded with mail in ballots fucked him but nothing has changed on that front for 2024.
The fact remains there are other factors that also fucked him in 2020.
Trump absolutely lost support with a subset of White men from 2016 to 2020: White men with a bachelor's degree.
Two of my friends are this demographic.
We all voted for Trump in 2016 and they didn't vote for anyone for President in 2020 because they didn't like him being weak on the BLM riots and pushing the Platinum Plan. I voted again for Trump in 2020 and tried getting them to vote Trump again in 2020 but no dice.
In 2024, they told me they are not voting at all if the race is Biden vs Trump.
They are not unicorns, a lot of people are sick of choosing between two angry old men.
You are basing a TON of your opinion on this single poll, run by a Liberal Arts college in Texas with questionable methodology.
Texas is currently being flooded with migrants with all the Southern Border states. What this poll and you are suggesting is that nobody in Texas cares about this issue.
That's absurd.
You are ignoring how the state has electorally trended from 2016 to 2020 and how the Senate race trended from 2012 to 2018.
The margins have substantially narrowed for Trump and Cruz. The two men have only acquired more baggage since their last election. Trump has J6 and Stop the Steal which hurts him dearly in the suburbs and Cruz has the Cancun Cruz debacle which hurts him in the suburbs.
There are legitimate reasons to be worried about this.
Suburban voters here care about the border somewhat but they absolutely don't like Donald Trump and Ted Cruz as individuals.
People DON'T always vote on policy but sometimes on personal dislike.
Texas is a likely red state for any Republican that is not Trump or Cruz.
Trump and Cruz are the weakest performing Republicans in the last 30+ years.
Having them both on the ballot at the same time in 2024 is just a nightmare waiting to happen.
I have given you my reasons and the election data to support this.
Whoa, very interesting. However, niggers ballotharvesting. Thanks for playing, though